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05/08/2025

Welcome to the Age of Chaos¹

Earlier this year, a friend of mine told me that he had stopped reading newspapers. There’s too much going on, with one bad news story chasing another. He’s retired, so he can take a break from the world – unlike you, who are more likely reading this message out of professional necessity rather than for fun, you have no such luck. The Economist recently put ‘The Age of Chaos’ on its cover. My friend obviously did not read it, but he would probably have agreed with the cover. Whether you agree with it or not is up to you.

We are living in a time of upheaval and fundamental change. The current US administration is hastening a tectonic shift that has been underway for quite some time. While the US are withdrawing as the global hegemon, other powers are flexing their muscles. We are on the cusp of a multipolar world. This will be a world that is less defined by rules than by power. Might makes right. The rule of law is being pushed back in favour of the rule by law: typically, autocrats using the law to intimidate opponents. To my increasing bewilderment the European Union is on the same trajectory: The EU Commission and the EU courts are pushing a political agenda with shocking disregard for public international law. In my last message I wrote about an Advocate General unleashing what I can only describe as a nuclear attack on sports arbitration, making a mockery of the New York Convention.²

The Micula saga is also depressing: an ICSID arbitral tribunal ordered Romania to pay damages to the Micula brothers. However, relying on EU law, the EU Commission prohibited Romania from doing so. Neither the Commission nor the General Court nor the CJEU addressed the obvious question whether Romania was simply obliged to pay under the ICSID Convention. It was only after nine years that the General Court finally discussed the ICSID Convention in its second decision (finding it to be irrelevant).³

It is easy to point the finger at the obvious real and wannabe autocrats of this world, but unfortunately also the EU sometimes likes to pursue its policies through the rule by (selected) law.

It is all the more dispiriting when you consider that both the rule of law and arbitration, as we know it today, evolved primarily in Europe. With the most important Western powers turning their backs on both, it is no surprise that we are facing uncertain times.

However, not all is bleak. England and Switzerland remain havens for arbitration and Asia is embracing it more than ever before – China and Japan in particular, also India, albeit somewhat less enthusiastically.

China is a particularly interesting country to observe. It boasts more than 280 arbitration institutions, dealing with hundreds of thousands of domestic (and some international) cases every year, and has a very different approach to arbitration. In a multipolar world, we can expect Chinese approaches to arbitration to influence the future conduct of international arbitration.

But what about Switzerland? ASA recognised the shift towards Asia many years ago. Our Asia Chapter (formerly the South-East Asia Chapter) is no coincidence, and our third ASA Arbitration Retreat (Asia Edition), held last May, was again a success. Our aim in Asia is to propagate that Switzerland is on everyone’s shortlist of potential venues, even if it’s not at the top.

Switzerland’s traditional neutrality should help. After the Cold War ended, neutrality lost its relevance for arbitration venues. The CIArb London Centenary Principles of 2015, which set out the top ten criteria for an arbitration seat, do not mention neutrality at all. Fast forward ten years, however, and neutrality has once again become a crucial criterion in an era of heightened political tensions. Alongside Singapore and, for PRC-related cases, Hong Kong, Switzerland is set to be a key location for resolving international trade disputes, of which we can expect to see more than ever.

Not all the action will take place in the East. ASA is also looking south: Africa is appearing on the arbitration map. Not least given the continent’s rich mineral resources, which are crucial for the energy transition, we can expect to see an increase in mining investments from Western and Chinese investors. This will lead to a corresponding rise in disputes that may be settled by arbitration.

This is all good news for the next generation of arbitration practitioners. My advice to you is simply this: (i) remain independent and impartial despite mounting political pressures, (ii) fight for the rule of law rather than the rule by law, and (iii) keep an open mind – in an age of chaos, we cannot predict what will happen next or how we will need to adapt.

Chaos always produces opportunities. Let’s seize them.

Felix Dasser

1. Loosely based on the MIDS lecture of 12 March 2025 at the University of Geneva. ↩︎
2. Felix Dasser, President’s Message. CJEU: Get Off That Slippery Slope, Before It’s Too Late, Please!, ASA Bulletin 43, 1/2025, 1 f. ↩︎
3. EU General Court, 2 October 2024, Cases T-624/15, T-694/15, T-704/15, ECLI:EU:T:2024:659. ↩︎

• ASA President's Message
• Swiss Arbitration Association